COVID-19 Outbreak Tracker
Predicting areas of hidden impact using leading indicators
Powered by Caspian Clarity

Using both clinical and claims data from Caspian Clarity, Cotiviti’s longitudinal data and analytics ecosystem, we have created two maps to help forecast which geographic areas may be impacted by COVID-19 in the immediate future. 

Map 1: COVID-19 Outbreak Tracker

On the Outbreak Tracker tab, use the controls or press "Z" to zoom in on individual counties. Darker areas indicate more leading indicators of potentially hidden outbreak based on the signature care profile of COVID-19. Highlighted areas that have not already seen a surge of confirmed cases are at greater risk of hidden outbreak within the next seven to ten days. Our latest forecast was made October 12, 2020. 

Map 2: COVID-19 Health Risk Tracker

On the Health Risk Tracker tab, darker states indicate populations that are at greater risk of contracting a severe case of COVID-19 requiring hospitalization based on prevalence and management of their chronic conditions, including respiratory and cardiovascular problems, hypertension, and diabetes. Higher-risk states may see greater mortality rates and increased strains on healthcare resource capacity.

For those with pre-existing conditions, the Relative Risk Score generated for each state indicates the risk of contracting a severe case of COVID-19 requiring medical attention relative to those with no pre-existing conditions. Patients with such comorbid conditions in higher-risk states should understand their increased risk and rigorously adhere to social distancing guidelines and care management plans.

Cotiviti supports the guidance that all Americans diligently follow social distancing guidelines and stay-at-home orders to help flatten the curve and protect vulnerable populations from COVID-19. This is particularly important in areas of emerging hidden outbreak, as many individuals with COVID-19 are asymptomatic but can still transmit the disease.


The U.S. healthcare system has been severely challenged by the lack of availability for COVID-19 testing, but leading indicators can help predict potential areas of concern before testing takes place. Each patient who is eventually diagnosed with severe complications of COVID-19 while in an intensive care unit has progressed through a series of tests, procedures, diagnoses, and pharmaceutical interventions. This pattern, which includes screening procedures such as telemedicine, rapid flu testing, and chest x-rays, can be observed clearly in the tens of millions of medical claims from all fifty states processed through Cotiviti’s Caspian Clarity platform on a daily basis. By comparing this current claims data against historical trends, anomalies emerge that could indicate areas of hidden outbreak.

About Caspian Clarity

Caspian Clarity is a unique data and analytics ecosystem combining financial and clinical information alongside a vast array of other healthcare data types, such as social determinants of health, medical records, pharmacy, dental, and lab information. With this information, Cotiviti provides an all-encompassing view of the member in order to help health plans and providers have access to actionable information at their fingertips.